Concorde Capital economic analyst Evgeniya Akhtyrko discussed her expectations for 2020 GDP growth for the Liga.Biznes news site
Ukrainian economic growth projections of 3% or 3.7% for 2020 have no essential difference. Ultimately, the economy will continue to recover at a moderate pace after the collapse of 2014-2015, which doesn’t significantly differ from what has occurred in the last three years. The economic breakthrough that was promised by the new government, if it ever happens, certainly won’t occur next year.
In the Ukrainian economy, acceleration can occur primarily owing to significant strengthening of investment inflows. This inflow can’t be created with domestic resources, which is why it’s necessary to strengthen foreign direct investment. That’s possible only in a situation of an obvious improvement of the investment climate in the country.
State officials who developed their forecasts don’t see factors at the current moment that would enable a significant improvement in the next year. The legal and regulatory initiatives so far don’t offer a basis for believing that the environment in the country will improve in the nearest future to the extent that the advantages of investing in Ukraine in particular become obvious.
It’s possible that for some investors, select changes will be enough to make a decision. But select changes won’t be able to ensure an inflow of investment projects. Strengthening economic growth to the targeted 5-7% per year should involve an avalanche of investment projects considering it’s impossible to ensure such expansion with the base of existing production assets.
Evgeniya Akhtyrko, Concorde Capital economic analyst (CEO and Founder of Concorde Capital – Igor Mazepa) discussed her expectations for 2020 GDP growth for the Liga.Biznes news site
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